Thursday 18 August 2011

Rise in Unemployment

I believe two factors are contributing to rise in unemployment

1) More capital intensive goods needing less labor,

2) Cost leadership rather than differentiation strategies of companies making domestic services more expensive and therefore causing business closures.



Wednesday 17 August 2011

Different Types of Financial Crises

There are four types:

1) Sovereign debt / defaults: When a government fails to meet payments on its external or domestic debt, obligations or both

2) Banking: After heavy investment losses, banking panics or both

3) Exchange rate: Over valuation etc.

4) Inflation: High or negative as with Japan

Only one of these is enough to bring crisis and there are all of it in current one.

Thursday 11 August 2011

Risk Factors in APT

The good side of APT is that risk factors to be included are not limited to a certain number unlike CAPM.

You can include macro variables such as exchange rate, interest rate, industrial production, inflation or micro ones such as "equity risk premia" as named by The Economist.

Wednesday 3 August 2011

If We Define Efficiency as Economic Units of GDP Funded by Lower Debt...

The Economist's breakdown of GDP/Debt percentage for countries between household and government units provides some brainstorming.

If We Define Efficiency as Economic Units of GDP Funded by Lower Debt...
Then households are very efficient in Japan lowering the whereas in Switzerland government is slightly more effient.