Bayes's Theorem

The theorem is used in many different areas such as modelling climate change, predicting the behaviour of stock markets, a different approach than Blaise Pascal's.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

It is that time of the year again. Counting backwards started both for Christmas and New Year.

Merry Christmas and a happy - peaceful new year.

GOLD STANDARD SYSTEM

As a current debate topic, few notes from ‘Between Recession and Depression’ are as below;

The main advantages are:

• Limiting the governments’ power in creating inflation through issuing excess paper currency,
• Creating certainty in international trade through fixed pattern of exchange rates

The main disadvantage is:

• Being a barrier in the flexibility of the supply of money as the supply of gold is not close the growing needs of world economy’s supply needs.

"Between Recession and Depression" on Amazon Kindle

"Between Recession and Depression" is available to purchase on Amazon Kindle for technology fans.

ECONOMICS BOOKS

As empirical economics has the characteristics of being a social science, which gains more weight in “crises” there has been a huge interest in it over the last two - three years. The number of people who are interested in the subject increased although still the theories, diagrams; thick books make it quite uninteresting to read any article or book.

So, the option is to simplify it. As Leonardo Da Vinci’s famous quote of “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication” says and put in the synopsis of my book. Then comes the feedback from the people who have never studied economics that they enjoyed it.

GOLD PRICES

Gold is probably the oldest instrument of commodities market with a history going back to seven millenniums.

Can recent high price within the range of $1,250 per ounce - already 20% higher than February level – be an indication of conventional wisdom in finance theory?

CORPORATE OPTIMISM

Corporate leg of optimism is showing up on two different sides:

1. Dividend payments,
2. Share buybacks.

Two added together are signalling good performance in the short term accompanied with “sustainability demand” for the long term to invest in projects, which will increase NPV and therefore shareholders’ wealth.

BETWEEN RECESSION AND DEPRESSION

"Between Recession and Depression" is the title of my new book about the current economic crisis, which is now available to buy in the market.

If you wish to purchase a copy, you can do so from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk or Arima Publishing.

I am quite excited as this is my first publication. When you have had a chance to read the book I would welcome any feedback or comments via email. Alternatively you can review on the Amazon web site.

ONE YEAR ON

It has been a year since I started to write in my blog.

If there is a need to find one single word to describe the last one year of the economics, that would be “speed”. It sometimes felt as if we were travelling at 300thousand kilometres per second.

Just remember the change in Davos World Economic Forum from 2009 to 2010. “We can not predict anything” was the theme brought by CEOs in 2009 whereas in 2010 a wide variety of social subjects were being discussed with a big relief that the worst for global economy is over.

The Economist had made a point about 2008, 2009, and 2010 by first one being financial meltdown, second being government intervention, and predicting third to be exit from expansionary policies. 2010 can also be evolutionary in a “kaizen” sense.

NO MAN IS AN ISLAND

No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manner of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee. “

Note: Thee = you
Thine= your